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METHODOLOGIES: DELPHI TECHNIQUE |
- The Delphi technique was first developed by the Rand Corporation in the USA in the late 1960s, to assist with long range technological forecasting
- By identifying and then recruiting the assistance of a panel of experts, collectively covering every area likely to influence the development and adoption of a particular technology, the Delphi process progressively simulates how that technology will impact the market by:
- The panel never meets, so that bandwagon effects do not falsely upset the pure market logic
- Each panellist contributes a forecast or opinion and their logic or rationale for such views
- The researcher analyses the sum of the panellists' views and feeds the forecast or market description back to panellists. In successive "rounds", the panellists are each asked to consider the "prior round" results and submit their revised views
- The process is repeated several times, usually taking a minimum of three rounds in order to reach consensus
- Chant Link & Associates has used the technique in a variety of ways, where special market conditions pertain
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